ES Plan Week #25 [Mid-Week Update]
I update via X based on this plan as the market session unfolds in real time. Make sure to follow for the real time market updates! X (Twitter)- trader_izzy
This is a follow up into the week plan. For full details check it out.
Mid Week Recap
Entering the week, I laid out two scenarios (A)- Primary Trend and (B) the counter trend trade.
Zooming in on an intraday look, the 4H range was set from 5462.5-5519.5 with the immediate level to keep longs into play being 5497.
This played out just as mentioned into the best case for an upside move. 5497 held on every intraday attempt to dip below and went for a breakout above 5519.5 putting Scenario A into play Monday session which clipped targets of 5534 and 5550.
Into Tuesday, after putting a breakout move higher over 5519.5 the market entered a consolidation zone which was set from 5542-5562.
Tuesday session plan was covered via X.
This was something I touched up on the weekend newsletter, that the market only does two things. Trend and consolidate. After being in a trending state from 5462.5-5519.5 the market put in a breakout higher. What comes after the trending (breakout) move? Again, enters right back into a consolidation state. This is a cycle that repeats over and over and over endlessly.
This brings no surprise to the consolidation state seen on Tuesday. Trapping majority of the market participants chasing the possible sell trigger and the rest of the participants FOMOing near the highs, swinging them back and forth within this intraday range.
Wednesday session brought us holiday action, low volume tight range price action. Sitting onto of Tuesday intraday range 5542-5561, buyers are in position to follow through higher into tomorrow, or does this fail?
Let’s get into it.
4H and 1H Timeframe
1H range 5541.5-5567 (Consolidation)
4H range 5462.5-5519.5 (Breakout Mode)
Scenario A is in full effect heading into tomorrow. The trigger was 5519.5 and hit targets so far of 5534/5550 with 5585/5600 right overhead.
To monitor continuation of this move, will be watching the 1H range of 5541.5-5567.
Must hold above 5567 to continue to look for 5585/5600. Failing to hold over 5567 just puts the market back within this hourly range of 5541.5-5567 and possible we can continue to see consolidation within this zone.
Sell trigger remains set at 5541.5 targeting backdown into a 5519.5 retest (Monday’s breakout).
15min Playing Field
Upside
Into tomorrow, the immediate level to keep upside continuation in play is set at 5560. Holding above 5560 keeps a move over 5567 targeting 5585/5600.
I would stay long intraday above 5560.
Failing at 5560, I would be more patient for support level of 5541.5 for buyer activity.
5519.5 is another level of interest for buyers (retest of Monday’s breakout trigger)
Downside
Buyers are in complete control with scenario A in play which is above 5519.5 Monday breakout trigger.
To talk about any potential downside move, begins with failure of holding above 5567 to keep continuation going. This only puts the market within the range of 5541.5-5567. Sellers must breakdown the key support of 5541.5 to begin to deviate away from Scenario (A).
The problem here is that below 5541.5 only puts 5519.5 retest back into play and is a level that can possibly be met with buyers on a retest, something I would keep in mind if this were to come. Getting below here and finding acceptance, sellers can get some momentum going, getting back into the range of 5462.5-5519.5 with 5462.5 being the downside target as of now.
As you see, there’s various things in the short term that have to take place to even think about something occurring into downside. With every micro dip that has been bought up since late April, it’s difficult to fight this price action. As I have mentioned continuously for weeks and months, until a support fails then we can adjust. If trying to time and predict a top, just alone this past month, it has probably been a difficult time for you.
That is why I set out two scenarios (A) and (B), going with the primary trend and keeping the counter trend trade in the back of the mind to stay objective of direction rather than hoping and predicting moves. The primary trend continues to be in development, failure of 5541.5 then we may be deviating away and could adjust accordingly.
In short term intraday trading, back below 5560 targets 5550/5541.5