ES Plan Week #21
I update via X based on this plan as the market session unfolds in real time. Make sure to follow for the real time market updates! X (Twitter)- trader_izzy
Here was last weekend’s newsletter with the full details on different timeframe ranges and the zones that were key to watch for upside and where things could’ve begun to turn around.
Recapping Last Week
In the week of 05/05-05/10, the market initiated a move above 5188.75-5218 zone with a high of 5264.
This past week the focus was on whether buyers can defend above 5218 to keep a breakout above 5264 in play with the bigger target area set at 5285-5308.5
Monday into Tuesday session the market consolidated within a range of 5264-5240.5. It was on Tuesday session into PPI data release that the market triggered right below the short pivot of 5240.5 to test right back into 5188.75-5218 zone which was immediately met with buyers setting a reclaim back over 5240.5 putting longs in play. Reclaim of 5240.5 set the way for a breakout above 5264 with a high of 5274.25 to close Tuesday session.
In Wednesday Session, another economic data release at 5:30AM pst (CPI) triggered the continuation above 5264 breakout coming into the weekly target I set in ES Plan Week #20; being 5285-5308.5.
Holding and getting through 5285-5308.5 zone, was the gateway into the bigger timeframe target being- 5333.5; which we saw that same session on Wednesday.
As readers know, from late April, as we came near the daily timeframe lower pivot, I mentioned that as long as this area can hold it would keep price just within this bigger timeframe range of 4929.5-5333.5; 5333.5 being the bigger upper target on upside. (screenshot from ES Plan Week #17 weekend newsletter)
Now sitting into this bigger timeframe pivot- 5333.5; the question moving forward into this week is can buyers set up to put in a bigger breakout above? Let’s get into what’s next here.
Daily Timeframe Pivot Range 4963.5-5333.5
This is the wider range here the market has been trading in for nearly 3 months now and attempting to breakout out of this range. 5333.5 remains the key level for buyers to get through and hold above to put a bigger move into the upside in play. As long as we hold above 5308.5 it keeps 5333.5 reclaim attempt in play and we look for the upside targets of 5370/5400.
Unable to hold above 5333.5, intraday support level that I will be watching is at 5308.5; failing here we start to deviate from an immediate breakout and looking to put 5285/5264 targets into downside.
After Wednesday’s follow through day, putting in a 71 point day and coming into 5333.5 upside pivot, the market started seeing compression of volatility into Thursday-Friday which is no surprise. After big moves it is normal to see the market once again compress volatility, digest the breakout, and once energy has built up and is ready, we look for decompression in this endless market cycle.
4H Timeframe Range 5216.75-5264
If readers recall, the market was stuck within a range of 5022.25-5154.25 from about 04/16-05/03. It was the 5154.25 4H pivot that sparked even more momentum into the month of May putting in a high of 5349 so far. 5154.25 sparked a move into the previous area of 5191.5-5308.5.
This is what makes 5308.5 a level to watch heading into this week.
As long as the market can hold above 5308.5 keeps the daily pivot of 5333.5 in play to continue trailing longs as we talked about in the Daily TF view.
Unable to hold above 5308.5 puts 5285/5264 into play.
Now 5264 here is the most recent breakout trigger (05/14) and important level to hold if any retest were to come into this week to keep immediate upside in play.
Failing to hold 5308.5 and getting under 5264 could be possible to see the market trade within a little wider range of 5308.5-5188.75.
5188.75 is the nearest major support level for buyers
1H Timeframe Range 5315.5-5349
This is the range I mentioned into Friday’s premarket update and remains the range to watch for development of a bigger move, until then it is possible to keep trading within this range. In doing so it is all consolidation with buyers in control above 5308.5
5349 is the trigger for a move into 5370/ 5400 keeping the daily timeframe view in play
Failure of 5315.5-5308.5 targets 5285/5264; seeing this scenario… a strong response from sellers would be to find acceptance below 5264 which could signal to us that the market may be entering a pause area which we highlighted being 5188.75-5308.5
15min Playing Field
Upside
We remain trading within the 1H timeframe range of 5349-5315.5
Into last Thursday session, sellers attempted to put a breakdown intraday below 5328.25 and put in a low of 5315.5 heading into Friday. On Friday the market consolidated within this tight area 5324-5315.5. Following the intraday breakdown attempt from sellers at 5328.25, to see further movement into downside a break of 5315.5 was needed. Late into Friday session, sellers broke down below 5315.5 into the next target of 5308.5, undercut this level by 3 points before being met with buyers and setting a reclaim back over 5315.5 to rally right back up into 5324 long trigger.
So far into Sunday open here, the market has gapped up through 5326 and right into 5333.5 daily pivot. Best case scenario here is to remain above 5326 to attempt to move higher into 5349- upper part of the 1H range of focus into this week. 5349 is the trigger to head higher targeting 5370/5400.
Currently flat myself as I stepped away missing the 5315.5 reclaim late Friday. I would like to see the market test back up higher into 5349 and see how well sells get absorbed there. Seeing sells hit the market, as long as we can show signs of holding above 5326-5333.5, it keeps a breakout over 5349 in play. I would treat this as a much quicker trade.
Below 5326 I would just wait to see if 5308.5-5315.5 can keep defending to consider quick longs there.
5264 is an area if we come to visit, I would be watching for buyer activity as it is the retest of last Tuesday’s recent breakout trigger.
Downside
We are in the upper part of this wider 3 month consolidation. What a move higher into this upper pivot area. As I have been saying over and over into this section of the newsletter, there has been no signs of sellers. I’ve said this one before as well…. sellers will break below the intraday short pivot, but when it is time to follow through buyers step in to set up a failed breakdown trade which is clear as day. This just shows the weakness of sellers here so far and I do not see why one would be fighting this price action.
Yes, the market has been on such a rally in a short amount of time and into this upper area of a 3 month consolidation. But this is never a signal to just short. We have to see some signs here first just as we looked for into late April to put longs into play, and that begins with sellers holding below 5333.5 level on any attempt to reclaim from buyers. And that is sign 1 of like 100.
Seeing sells still hit the 5333.5 area, this only puts 5315.5/5308.5 key support level back into play. A breakdown of 5308.5-5305.75 is needed to get some momentum going targeting 5285/5264. I do not chase breakdowns. I need to see weak price action to really consider and haven’t seen any.
The breakout trigger higher is set at 5349, that’s a level I would be watching to see if buyers can set up an attempt to break higher and watch for a failed follow through to put more pressure into 5333.5 breaking.
It is difficult to pin point a sell scenario here as we really haven’t seen any signs of one developing. Let’s see what develops into this week.
Summary
Seeing such a strong move into upside and at the same time setting new ATH’s, is not something I would like to chase. 10+ days of green, it does make it risky to chase longs. At the same time, it does not mean to short either.
One beautiful thing many retail traders forget we have is the ability to trade or not. It is the impulse of needing to make money, an urgency to do something that kills many traders. Patience is a very important skill to have in day trading. Can buyers follow through above 5333.5 to keep trailing higher early into the week after a 2 day consolidation? Or does the market need more time to digest this move? Always keep an open mind ready to receive what possibilities the market may bring forth. It is when you develop a bias that blocks some of these potentials to act on.