ES Plan Week #23
I update via X based on this plan as the market session unfolds in real time. Make sure to follow for the real time market updates! X (Twitter)- trader_izzy
Here is the plan from previous weekend that laid out the move into downside and the major areas I mentioned to watch for buyer activity.
Recapping ES Plan Week #22
If readers recall, Thursday of 05/22, the market was holding a range pulled from the 4H timeframe being 5348.25-5305.75 for nearly 5 sessions already. That same session, buyers attempted a break out very early into the session which failed and put a nearly a 100 point downside move breaking the short pivot of 5305.75 and put a low of 5273.5 for the week. The following session, buyers put in a move back over 5305.75 and into 5333.5 key level to close that week out.
Which lead us into this past week.
Monday was a short slow session due to holiday and spent consolidating in a tight range still holding 5322.5 level.
Heading into Tuesday session, the best case scenario for buyers was laid out being to continue to hold 5322.5 level and attempt a breakout above 5329.25-5333.5 to target 5349/5368.25 levels. Any seller case would begin with the failure of 5322.5 level. Buyers attempted twice to break above 5329.25-5333.5 zone which were met with sellers right back down into 5322.5 level.
It was very easy to spot the lack of buyers coming into this level to attempt the breakout higher and I sent an update via X “If 5322.5 gets taken out, i’ll be more patient on longs and watching 5305.75-5296 for buyer activity”.
Sure enough, buyers failed right back down into 5296-5305 area to pick up buyers one last time and reclaimed back over 5322.5 level. Seeing demand dry up early into Tuesday followed by picking up buyers late into the session at 5296 which set up 5322.5 level once more, this was a do or die scenario for buyers heading into Wednesday session.
Wednesday session overnight traders sold off from 5322.5 level right back into 5296 breaking below and retesting the previous week low at 5273.5. Entirety of Wednesday cash session remained within the intraday range of 5296-5273.5 chopping back and forth.
Sellers held 5296 and were able to follow through below 5273.5 at the last hour of the session extending into the lows of 5250.
Same pattern continued into Thursday since the failure of 5322 on Tuesday. Breaking below support, followed by buyers attempted to reclaim and rejected back down into new lows.
Same set up into Friday session. Overnight session and immediate short trigger was set at 5234.5 with the best case scenario set on buyers attempting to reclaim support of Thursday being 5250.5. Buyers held intraday above 5234.5-5240 and put in a move back over 5250-5258.25 to test into breakout trigger of 5277 which was quickly rejected right back down 5250-5258.25 setting up breakdown short trigger of 5234.5 to target 5226/5218-5188 areas.
If readers recall from the weekend newsletter, 5218-5188.75 was a major area for buyers that I listed to watch. Reason being was….
Sure enough dipping into this area, market picked up buyers here putting in a reclaim back over 5234.5 short pivot invalidating the breakdown lower and putting the market back within the 5234.5-5277 1H range. This quickly put momentum back into upside showing the power of failed breakdowns and what happens when shorts all stack up.
The reclaim of 5234.5 short pivot caused a rally quickly through 5250.5 and back into 5277 triggering a breakout to target 5286/5296.
Daily Timeframe Range 4963.5-5333.5
Zooming out into this much bigger timeframe to grab some clarity, the battle of 5333.5 daily upper pivot remains a battle. After attempting to consolidate for nearly 8 sessions to set up a break higher, on 05/29 Wednesday session, sells kicked in on failure of 5305.75 and put a 100 point downside move which was met with buyers and reversed right back into this 5305.75 level.
Just as 5305.75 was a level of interest previous week, remains the same going into this week as well.
Based on this wider timeframe, scenarios that were laid out in ES Plan Week #22 remain intact…
Exception is now, that the previous week the 5305.75 support was broken downwards and picked up buyers at 5218-5188.75 area to rally right back.
Buyers must reclaim over this level to keep 5333.5 daily pivot in play for development of further upside scenario
Failing to hold above 5305.75 we start to deviate from upside scenario, putting cautious into longs
4H Timeframe Range 5273.5-5339
3 important things going on within this timeframe here and overall structure I will be working with this week.
From the break of 5305.75 the market expanded the range lower into 5273.5. On Friday buyers put in a strong move back over 5273.5
This makes 5273.5 the 1st major support level to hold this week if we see any sells hit the market.
5188.75-5218 buyer zone and major area for buyers to hold.
5305.75-5349 has been so far held by sellers, any risk into this area can be continued to met by sellers, understand and manage risk on longs within this area.
5305.75-5349 is a wider seller range based on this 4H timeframe. This 50 point range must be reclaimed by buyers and establish value within to attempt a breakout into new highs. Getting through 5305.75 upper target is set at 5333.5-5339, a strong response would look like- buyers consolidating above 5305.75 to set up a breakout above 5333.5-5339 targeting 5368.25/5380/5400
Unable to get through/hold above 5305.75 we look into the lower pivot of this range at 5273.5 which I already mentioned is the 1st area of major support for buyers to prove they are here. Holding 5273.5 keeps 5305.75-5349 reclaim alive for buyers.
A strong seller response starts and would be on keeping under 5305.75 and follow through below 5273.5 Under 5273.5 opens the door was into 5250.5/5234.5 and back into 5188.75-5218 buyer zone.
1H Timeframe Range Pivots 5234.5-5277
Not much to pull from here than what triggered Friday’s move. The market was within a range of 5234.5-5277. 5234 was the short trigger for sellers to continue the market lower on Friday. This triggered the market lower on Friday into the buyzone pulled from the 4H timeframe which set up the reclaim of 5234.5. Combining a false breakdown set up + a bigger timeframe buy zone displayed the power of this set up. From the reclaim of this short pivot the market wasted no time to move back near 5277 breakout trigger extending the move back near 5305.75 level.
Key take away here from this timeframe is…
5277-5273.5 important to remain above here to keep upside in play short term. Failing under here I would be more patient with longs as it opens the door to easily visit 5250.5/5234.5
15Min- Playing Field
Putting it all together….
Knowing the 4H buyer and seller areas
4H pivot range 5273.5-5339
1H 5277 breakout trigger
We zoom in onto this 15min timeframe to give us clues on the development into the 1H and 4H timeframe direction to allow us to stay objective.
Upside
The best case scenario going into Monday is keep above 5285 and maintain consolidation within intraday zone of 5285-5307. Trigger is 5307 to target 5315.5 and next intraday liquidity area being 5324-5339. Longs work above 5307 trigger or holding above 5285 on any intraday sells.
Getting into 5324-5339 is the area sellers were able to step in intraday to begin the down move last week. To maintain a breakout higher above 5339 in play, buyers need to make a move into this 5324-5339 zone to set up a reclaim. The response into a reclaim of this zone would be to see consolidation within this zone showing signs any sells here are being bought right back up into 5324 to attempt a 5339 breakout.
Above 5339 triggers into 5349/5368
Cautious with longs below key support of 5277-5273.5
Downside
As mentioned above in the 4H timeframe view. 5305.5-5349 is a wider range to see if buyers reclaim to set up a move higher.
In a strong response for sellers would be to hold any attempts from buyers to move above 5305.75. Successfully holding 5305.75 only keeps quick intraday move into 5296/5285. Below 5285 puts the key level of 5273.5 into test. And this is the real test here, to keep a sellers case in play, would need a break below 5273.5 and establish value below opening doors back into 5250/5234.
If buyers carry momentum above 5285 I would just be more cautious here and watch 5324-5339 above. No real case into downside unless we can breakdown 5273.5 and that comes with failure of 5305.75. And above 5273.5 buyers control so be patient here.