ES Plan Week #18 [Bulls Attempting a breakout here?]
I update via X based on this plan as the market session unfolds in real time. Make sure to follow for the real time market updates! X (Twitter)- trader_izzy
Wednesday Session Newsletter
Wednesday Session Recap
The main question into Wednesday session was.. can buyers continue to defend here at 5037.75-5065.5?
A level of focus into the session was set at 5065.5 as this was the best case scenario here for buyers to keep upside into play.
I updated before cash open with the overnight session range being set at 5082.5-5066. A little bit before cash open buyers attempted to breakout out above 5082.5, put in a high of 5090 before reversing back below and triggering through 5066 to put shorts into play targeting 5047/5037.75 as a quick trade.
Via X as we approached 5037.75 I advised about chasing shorts there as we can see buyers here and without a doubt this support was defended right away reclaiming back over the level mentioned in last night’s newsletter 5065.5. Putting a reclaim back over 5065.5-5066 buyers worked their way up the levels of 5076.75/5095.25/5104.5 and at the time of writing this sitting right below 5120.5-5154.25 sell zone once again.
Today shorts payed off first followed by longs right back up. We still remain inside 1H and 4H pivot range that we will go over below. Sitting right below the sell zone, can buyers capitalize heading into tomorrow? Let’s get into what is next.
1H and 4H Timeframe Range
1H Pivot Range 5126.75-5036.25
4H Pivot Range 5154.25-5022.25
Into Wednesday session, 5066 (15min short pivot) mentioned in premarket update via X was the short pivot to test into the lower part of the 1H range being 5037.75 at the time and was quickly bought back up now nearing into the upper part of the 1H range being 5126.75 now.
In last night’s newsletter I went over what keeps 5154.25 (4H upper pivot) in play. And that begun with defending 5037.75-5065.5 zone today which is setting up now an attempt to test back up into the sell zone of 5120.5-5154.25 heading into tomorrow.
Today was a perfect example on why I do not chase breakdowns/breakouts outside of these bigger timeframe ranges. I like to be positioned into the move already trailing runners into these bigger pivot areas making it a risk free trade.
I will go over in the playing field section below on what sets up a breakout attempt of 5154.25 but as of now, this 5154.25 remains the upper target heading into tomorrow for buyers. Breaking above 5154.25 puts a breakout move into 5164.75/ 5176.5/ 5191.5 **breakdown retest**
The bigger picture remains the same into tomorrow, we have just been consolidating within the 4H range yet to make a move outside of this range. Trade the range.. (screenshot below from yesterday’s newsletter)
Playing Field 15min Timeframe
Seller zone 5102.5-5154.25
Buyer Zone 5037.75-5065.5
Overnight Intraday Range 5118-5103.25
Upside
Wednesday session buyers stepped in right at 5037.75 support and put a reclaim back over 5066-5065.5 short trigger of today and rallied up into the levels of 5076.75/5095.25/5104.5 so far.
Best case scenario into tomorrow is we see buyers consolidate above 5104.5 to set up a breakout through 5118 to target back up into 5126.75/5145.5/5154.25. We need to see buyers consolidate within this zone of 5120.5-5154.25 to set up a breakout through 5154.25 higher (out of the 4H range).
Risk management talk here… I do not chase longs outside of the buy zone especially as we near into the upper part of the wider 4H range because any rally into the sell zone can get smacked down quickly. If buyers are truly strong here I would be patient and watch for signs of this zone reclaiming to then set up a move higher through 5154.25
I would be cautious with longs under 5103.25
Downside
Sellers were unable to follow through below 5037.75 today putting the ball into buyers’ hands heading into tomorrow.
Sellers have shown up here all week into 5120.5-5154.25 zone. There are two levels I am watching into tomorrow and that is 1H upper pivot of 5126.75 and the 4H upper pivot of 5154.25
My favorite short trades into a weak market is break above a significant pivot and fail to hold to look for entry on downside moves. Two areas of interest into tomorrow and will observing price action into these levels if the market can run up into these levels.
The immediate short trigger into overnight is set at 5103.25 and we work our way down the levels being 5095.25/5076.75/5065.5-5037.75
Finishing off this week with NFP at 5:30AM PST tomorrow. As always this causes volatility and it can be both ways. Entering the session flat myself. One thing that has caught my eyes on the chart is sellers still being aggressive into the sell zone and my question is… is the demand truly here to breakout of the 4H range? And this is where I will be observing if the market can come into these levels and establish value to move higher. One thing I look for is to put higher lows into a sell zone to show signs of a reclaim and showing the sells slowing down, getting less impulsive, sells being bought up quicker… This makes tomorrow very interesting day.
Example here of buyers showing signs of a reclaim of a prior sell zone.
As always be patient and observe. Do not fomo into the extreme highs and lows of a range, that is how traders get trapped and make big holes into their accounts.