ES Plan Week #16
I update via X based on this plan as the market session unfolds in real time. Make sure to follow for the real time market updates! X (Twitter)- trader_izzy
Here are the links for the premarket updates done everyday on X which follows up on these newsletters and updates throughout the session to help guide.
Recapping Friday Session
Heading into Friday session the intraday range to watch for a bigger move was 5257.5-5240.5
Into overnight session at about 1:45AM PST, power began to be initiated into the downside pivot of 5240 which immediately put in 5215 downside target in play before seeing a pop from the 5215 level which was met with continued selling right down into the following target of 5191.5 as we neared into cash open. Into 6:30AM PST buyers attempted once again from the 5191.5 level to put a bounce back into 5215 and once again was met with sellers rejecting the market back into new lows and put 5173.5 target in play and came off 2 points of the final target I had set at 5148.
This intraday buy zone was tested picking up buyers 3 times before seeing it breakdown on Friday. And this is something I talked about in Wednesday's nightly newsletter.
Into Thursday session, sellers failed to breakdown the buyzone and we saw buyers attempt to put in a rally heading into Friday. In this scenario it was plain and simple. Rally or fail. Reason being is 3 times buyers were picked up at this zone, however it’s evident to see sellers were still aggressive at the resistance zone of 5263-5272.5 showing no signs of slowing down. Picking up buyers at the intraday buy zone of 5191.5-5215 and rallying back up near 5263, who ever did not manage risk and/or take profits, were left at the altar into Friday as we saw no buyers interested to carry on the market higher. Advised on this as we closed into Thursday session.
There are few bigger timeframe buy zones right underneath the lows of where we closed off the week. Does the market pick up new buyers at the zones we are going to go over to attempt another move higher? And if this is true, sellers have made few intraday sell zones of their own that buyers, moving forward will have to work through to see and put new ATH’s into play. This means volatility. Volatility is the blood of a trader. Volatility brings opportunity.
Let’s see what is next into this week and how we will navigate through it as traders.. one session and one level at a time.
Daily Timeframe Range 5333.5-4921
After failing to reclaim and hold 5263 since 4/02 which would put 5333.5 in play, the market finally failed and broke below the key support of 5191.5 which was of focus last week.
Zooming out into the daily timeframe we now have the swing high and swing low. These two pivots are going to serve as our much bigger targets and will navigate as we go level to level. Which do we visit first? 5333.5 upper pivot or 4921 lower pivot?
4H Timeframe Pivots 5285-5191.5
5285-5191.5 was the wider range we have been working within since 4/04 and finally saw a break into the downside this Friday.
This is where I pulled the 5191.5 key level from the past two weeks, and moving forward will be an important level for buyers to reclaim to set a short term low in. As long as we remain under 5191.5, I would be cautious with longs as this would show us lack of buyers.
Reclaiming back over 5191.5 puts the market back within range of 5191.5-5285. Holding above 5191.5 we move up the levels of 5208.25/5235/5263 and ultimately 5285 which is the trigger to expand higher into the Daily Timeframe swing high at 5333.5
As we just broke down this pivot on Friday (5191.5), sellers best interest is to hold 5191.5 in any attempt from buyers to rally up and need to follow through below 5150 to target into 5124.25-5117.5
Now this is a possible area the market can pick up buyers.
5150 Support level
5122.75-5130- served as a breakout level on 02/22/24 which then served as support all the way into 03/05/24 before the move higher into end of March that put in the recent ATH’s at 5333.5
These are the 2 areas I am watching if buyers are interested at to attempt a 5191.5 retest. Now keep in mind if we come into 5122.75-5130 and fail this would put a bigger move into downside with the next 4H timeframe buyzone at 5000-5022.5. As long as the market remains under 5191.5, indicates weakness for now and over time our bigger target remains 4921 daily timeframe swing low.
1H TimeFrame Pivots 5248.75-5173.5
Zooming in a timeframe lower here now. This is going to help us stay objective into what is unfolding into the bigger timeframe (4H).
5173.5 must reclaim back over to put in a test of 5191.5. Keep in mind of the risk of retesting this level, are sellers still here? Getting a move through 5173.5 and testing into 5191.5, it would then be best to hold 5173.5 on any sells to then attempt a reclaim of the level 5191.5 to move higher into the targets mentioned above in the 4H timeframe.
Unable to get back over 5173.5 we look at 5150 for continuation lower setting up targets of 5130-5122.75/5102.75
Putting it All Together (15Min Timeframe)
Seller zone 5257.75-5285
Buyer zone 5173.5-5191.5
Evident to see that testing back into 5173.5-5191.5 on Friday, there was no buyers which began to move the market out of the 4H range. As we went over. unable to reclaim back into the zone of 5173.5-5191.5, be cautious with longs. Also have to be mindful here, testing back into this zone are sellers there now? Have to pay attention to the reactions if we get back within this zone.
Upside
Best case scenario for buyers here is straight forward. Hold 5150 short term and move back over 5173.5 to test into 5191.5 and on any sells coming best to hold above 5173.5 to keep longs into play. 5191.5 is the trigger to target higher into 5208.25/5235. Be aware here that 5208 and 5235-5240 are broken down supports. Possible to see supply here that buyers may have to absorb to keep a move higher. 5191.5 is the main support level that buyers have to reclaim to set a low, until then we have to be cautious with longs.
5130-5122.75 is the zone below I watching for buyer activity if we can see early into the week. Failing here I would be more patient with longs.
5047 was a trigger for longs back in all of February. Next area down I am looking for longs if we extend down this low.
Next big buy zone underneath 5122.75-5130 is at 5000-5022.5
Downside
Big resistances into this week are 5285/5235/5208/5191
You have to be aware here that break out trades higher have been failing ever since putting in the ATH’s which quickly failed.
03/31 broke out higher above 5322.75 and then quickly failed
04/04 buyers attempted a break above 5301 which failed 7 points later
04/09 buyers attempted a breakout above 5272.5, put in a high of 5285 which then quickly failed
04/11 buyers breakout above 5235 to set up a 5263 reclaim quickly failed into the next session
Each of these failed breakouts produced 100 point downside sessions. You have to adapt to any sudden current market changes. That is what keeps traders alive. With what the market is giving us and showing in the charts, and if you keep trading breakouts and not adapting/adjusting, you are going to bleed out your capital or blow out. With the information above, I consider sellers stepping in for the time being.
The best short entry as mentioned on Thursday’s newsletter was at failure of 5240, nearly 100 points already. Considering shorts, I would like to see a attempt of a bounce from 5150 level back into 5191.5 and see sellers step in there and see continuation of the seller case below 5150 targeting 5130-5122.75/5102.75.
I am flat into this week and good decision. There is alot of noise surrounding the markets as of now with the geo political events going on over the weekend. This makes things more uncertain and difficult to gauge levels as the Sunday open we can see either big gap up, gap down or even no change at all.
Block out all the noise outside, it is useless commodity.. at least for me as a trader. I solely focus on the chart, my zones/pivots and looking for a failed breakdown attempt for longs or failed breakout attempt to consider shorts. That is my signal at the levels/pivots we went over to consider entries. Anything outside of that is noise. The more you pay attention and get dragged into the noise, focus becomes weaker on the signal, it becomes blurred. What follows that? Impulsive, emotional, irrational decisions outside of the trading plan. Breaking the plan doesn’t allow us to manage risk properly and in a very uncertain environment does not produce consistency over the long run. You must trade with a clear, calm state of mind.
Control your thoughts. Control your emotions. Control your actions. Outside of this you do not control anything.
I will stay actively updating via X on any changes of this plan due to the uncertainty of the outside events. Stay extra sharp this week.